Thursday 5 March 2026

Good morning Bangkok. We're looking at 30-35°C (86-95°F) today with partly cloudy skies and possible afternoon thunderstorms (seems unlikely) as the tail end of that summer storm system clears through. PM2.5 is sitting at 96 AQI (orange zone, unhealthy for sensitive groups), so keep windows shut and maybe hold off on outdoor exercise until it clears. Big day to talk about: Thailand's stock market hit a circuit breaker for the first time in six years, fuel prices are frozen, and Shell just went rogue. Let's get into it.

The SET Index crashed 8% on Tuesday, dropping 117 points and triggering an automatic trading halt at 12:18 PM. It was the first circuit breaker activation since 2020. The sell-off was driven by panic over surging LNG costs and the ongoing Strait of Hormuz closure, which has choked off roughly 20% of global oil supply. Heavyweight Thai stocks including Gulf Energy, PTT, PTTEP, Delta Electronics, and Kasikornbank all took heavy hits. Trading resumed in the afternoon and the index clawed back some losses, closing down 5.58% at 1,384 points. Analysts say a rebound is possible but nobody's calling the bottom yet.

Bottom line: If you have Thai stocks or investments tied to the SET, yesterday was painful. The good news is circuit breakers exist specifically to stop panic spirals, and it worked. The bad news is the Hormuz situation isn't resolved, and energy-heavy portfolios will keep getting hammered until it is.

PTT and its retail arm OR announced a 15-day freeze on diesel and gasohol prices starting March 4. Diesel stays capped at ฿29.94 per liter. The government also ordered all foreign fuel retailers to comply. One problem: Shell jumped the gun. On March 3, Shell raised gasohol prices by ฿1.50/liter and diesel by ฿4.20/liter before the freeze took effect. PTT stations have also stopped selling fuel into jerrycans and containers to prevent hoarding. The Energy Ministry says Thailand has 60 days of reserves even without new shipments, and is sourcing from the US, West Africa, and Malaysia as backups.

Bottom line: Don't panic at the pump. Supplies are fine. If you're filling up, stick to PTT or Bangchak for the frozen prices. Shell stations are more expensive right now. And don't show up with a jerrycan. They'll turn you away.

If you've been meaning to try proper Thai-sourced beef done right, this is your spot. 100 Mahaseth is a nose-to-tail restaurant built around ethically raised Thai cattle, dry-aged on site. The menu changes based on what cuts are available, but the grilled short rib and beef tartare are consistently excellent. They also do a killer fermented sausage. The space is industrial-chic in a converted warehouse, and the cocktail list leans local with Thai herbs and house-made infusions. 4.4 stars on Google with 800+ reviews. Reservations recommended on weekends.

TIP: Thursday evenings are quieter than Friday/Saturday. The tasting menu is worth it if you're going with a group. ฿800-1,500 per person depending on how deep you go.

5 March 1946: Winston Churchill delivered his "Iron Curtain" speech in Missouri, warning the world about Soviet expansion. Eighty years later, we're watching a different kind of curtain close: the Strait of Hormuz. Different century, same energy.

See you tomorrow morning. — Devon